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Por tanto, si los ocho dirigentes se alinean al azar, la probabilidad de que estos dos salgan el uno junto a la otra es Si dos acontecimientos son independientes, en el sentido de que el resultado de uno de ellos no influye en el del otro, la probabilidad de que ocurran ambos a la vez se calcula multiplicando las probabilidades de que ocurra cada uno de ellos por separado.
Por ejemplo, la probabilidad de que salgan dos caras al lanzar dos veces una moneda es pues de los cuatro resultados igualmente probables: A menudo dos partes contrarias deciden un resultado lanzando una moneda al aire.
Se tira dos veces la moneda. Si salen dos caras o dos cruces, se vuelve a tirar otras dos veces. Si sale cara-cruz, gana la primera parte, y si sale cruz-cara, gana la segunda. La probabilidad de que el vaso se desborde en los tres primeros refrescos y no en los siete restantes es, aplicando la regla del producto para la probabilidad: Estas probabilidades se determinan por el mismo procedimiento.
Y aunque la probabilidad de librarse de cada una de estas enfermedades o accidentes por separado es alentadora, la de salvarse de todas no lo es. Resulta pues preocupante que algo tan inofensivo como la regla del producto pueda intensificar en tal medida nuestra mortalidad. Primero, apreciado lector, inspira profundamente. La respuesta es sorprendentemente alta: Desde entonces lleva siempre una bomba en la maleta.
Son las predicciones concretas las que raramente se hacen realidad. Esta clase de coincidencias es sorprendentemente corriente. Si suponemos que cada uno de los aproximadamente millones de adultos que viven en los Estados Unidos conoce a unas 1. Pongamos que sean N. Lawrence, Ludwig Wittgenstein y otras lumbreras. Otro problema de probabilidad sirve para ilustrar lo corrientes que pueden llegar a ser las coincidencias en otro contexto.